Fertiliser supply crisis from Iran war could cut global food output by 10bn meals weekly – Yara CEO warns

The ongoing conflict in Iran and the resulting disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is threatening global food production and could lead to the loss of up to 10 billion meals every week, according to the chief executive of one of the world’s largest fertiliser producers.

Svein Tore Holsether, head of Yara International, warned that interruptions to fertiliser supplies and key raw materials are already affecting agricultural output worldwide, with the poorest countries expected to suffer the most.

He said around half a million tonnes of nitrogen fertiliser is currently not being produced due to the crisis, a shortfall that could significantly reduce crop yields across multiple regions.

“What does that mean for food production? I would get to up to 10 billion meals that will not be produced every week as a result of the lack of fertilisers,” Holsether said.

He explained that nitrogen fertiliser can account for up to 50% of crop yield in some cases, meaning reduced application could immediately translate into major production losses.

According to the United Nations, about a third of global fertiliser shipments—including urea, ammonia, potash, and phosphates—normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been heavily affected by the conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel.

The disruption has already contributed to a sharp increase in fertiliser prices, which have risen by about 80% since the start of the conflict, further straining global food systems.

Holsether warned that farmers worldwide are now facing a cost squeeze, as rising fuel, energy, and fertiliser prices are not being matched by higher crop prices.

“Farmers are faced with higher energy costs, diesel for tractors is increasing, fertiliser costs are increasing, but crop prices have not risen to the same extent,” he said.

He also raised concerns about a potential “bidding war” for food supplies, where wealthier nations outcompete poorer countries in global markets.

“That is a situation where the most vulnerable people pay the highest price in developing nations where they cannot afford to follow that,” he warned.

Food security experts have echoed similar concerns. The World Food Programme estimates that the combined effects of the Middle East crisis could push an additional 45 million people into acute hunger in 2026.

In regions such as Asia and the Pacific, food insecurity is projected to rise by 24%, the largest increase globally.

In the UK and Europe, consumers are expected to feel indirect impacts through rising food prices. The Food and Drink Federation has warned that inflation could reach 10% by December, while the Bank of England has projected food price inflation could climb to 4.6% or higher later in the year.

Holsether urged policymakers, particularly in Europe, to consider the global consequences of market responses to shortages, warning that decisions made in wealthier economies could worsen hunger in more vulnerable regions.